2015 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 5/15/2015 8:30:00 AM For May, 2015
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-1.19 5.00 2.00  to 7.00 3.09 

Highlights
The first indication on May conditions in the manufacturing sector is soft, as indications have been all year. The Empire State index came in at 3.09, below what were already weak Econoday expectations for 5.00. Shipments look respectable at 14.94 but are way ahead of new orders, at only 3.85, and even further ahead of backlog orders which are in deep contraction at minus 11.46. Employment growth is down as is the 6-month outlook, both pointing to a lack of optimism.

Price readings in this report stand out, pointing to even less pressure than in April with input cost inflation very subdued, down nearly 10 points to 9.38, and with virtually no price traction at all for finished goods, at only 1.04.

The manufacturing sector, hurt in part by weak exports, looks to be more and more of a drag at a time when economic growth is supposed to be on a springtime rebound. Next indication on the May manufacturing sector will be next Thursday with the Philly Fed report. Later this morning the industrial production report will offer the first definitive data on the April manufacturing sector.

Consensus Outlook
The Empire State manufacturing survey offers the first glimpse of the month's manufacturing activity and has, like the factory sector itself, been flat going all the way back to the third quarter. No better is expected for May with the consensus calling for a pathetic plus 5.00.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2015 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/152/173/164/155/156/157/158/179/1510/1511/1612/15
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