2015 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 7/27/2015 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2015
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change-1.8 %-2.1 %3.1 %0.6 % to 6.4 %3.4 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change-3.1 %-3.1 %-2.8 %
Ex-transportation - M/M0.5 %-0.1 %0.5 %0.0 % to 1.0 %0.8 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr-2.4 %-2.5 %-4.5 %

Highlights
June was a strong month for durable goods orders which rose a slightly higher-than-expected 3.4 percent. Excluding transportation, which is where aircraft orders are tracked, new orders rose 0.8 percent which is near top-end expectations. Core capital goods orders, which also exclude aircraft, rose a very solid 0.9 percent. These readings are some of the highest of the last year and offer welcome evidence of a long awaited pop higher for what is, however, a still depressed factory sector.

Turning briefly to civilian aircraft, orders surged 103 percent after falling 46 percent in May. Swings in aircraft are common in this report and reflect monthly swings in Boeing orders. Other industries include a small gain for motor vehicles and for computers & electronics as well as large gains for machinery and fabricated metals. In a hint of strength for the construction sector, electrical equipment jumped an especially sharp 2.8 percent in the month.

Turning back to totals, shipments inched 0.1 percent higher with shipments of core capital goods edging 0.1 percent lower and including downward revisions to both May and April. The shipment readings for capital goods will not be lifting second-quarter GDP estimates for business investment. Unfilled orders ended two months of contraction with a 0.1 percent gain while inventories rose 0.4 percent, a modest build that keeps the stock-to-sales ratio unchanged at 1.68.

This is only the third monthly gain for durable goods orders going all the way back to July, which was before of course the drop in oil prices and rise in the value of the dollar, the former having torpedoed the energy sector and the second having flattened the nation's exports. Today's report will confirm for many expectations that the negative effects of the strong dollar on exports are beginning to ease.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Durables goods orders are expected to be dominated once again by monthly swings in Boeing orders which surged in June. But strength is seen outside of transportation as well with forecasters calling for a second straight 0.5 percent gain for this reading. The durables report has been very weak this year including flat readings for the closely watched capital goods group.

Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2015 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/263/254/245/266/237/278/269/2410/2711/2512/23
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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