2013 Economic Calendar
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Consumer Confidence
Released On 12/31/2013 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Consumer Confidence - Level70.4 72.0 76.8 72.0  to 81.2 78.1 

Highlights
Consumers are not particularly optimistic about the future but they're giving very strong scores to current conditions. The consumer confidence index rose a strong 6.1 points in December to 78.1. The present situation component rose 2.7 points to 76.2 which is the highest level for this reading of the whole recovery. The expectations component did rise more than 8 points but from a very soft November to 79.4 which is still well below a recent peak of 91.1 in June.

The gain in the present situation includes another monthly best, for the jobs-hard-to-get subcomponent which fell a sizable 1.6 percentage points to 32.5 percent. This is a closely watched reading and will lift expectations for strength in the December employment report.

Among the subcomponents on the expectations side, employment shows strong improvement with the spread narrowing sharply between pessimists and optimists with the pessimists still leading. The income subcomponent isn't showing much improvement, with slightly more seeing a decrease ahead than an increase.

Other readings include no change for 12-month inflation expectations, at 5.2 percent, and a little bit of a widening for the stock market bulls who lead 36.6 percent against 29.1 percent for the bears.

Today's report not only offers the upbeat hint on December employment but also may hint at unsuspected strength for holiday sales which, at least, were not held back by weak confidence. The Dow is moving to opening highs following today's report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell further in November, to 70.4 from October's revised 72.4. Confidence took a big hit in October, falling from September's 80.2 amid the government shutdown and budget standoff. The weakness continued to be centered in the expectations component where wide swings are common. Expectations fell to 69.3 from 72.2 in October and against 84.7 in September before all the Washington trouble started. Consumers are showing less confidence in their income prospects and especially on the outlook for the jobs market. But the present situation component continues to hold up, at 72.0 in November for only a 6 tenth decline from October.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/292/263/264/305/286/257/308/279/2410/2911/26
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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