2013 Economic Calendar
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Producer Price Index  
Released On 1/15/2013 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI - M/M change-0.8 %-0.1 %-0.8 % to 0.4 %-0.2 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change0.1 %0.2 %0.0 % to 0.2 %0.1 %
PPI -Yr/Yr change1.4 %1.3 %
PPI less food & energy - Yr/Yr change2.2 %2.0 %
PPI - level196.0 index level
Core PPI - level183.5 index level

Energy, food, and capital goods pulled down on the PPI in December. The producer price index dipped 0.2 percent in December, following a 0.8 percent drop in in November. The December figure posted lower than the consensus forecast for a 0.1 percent decrease. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, rose 0.1 percent, following a rebound of 0.1 percent in November. The consensus was for a 0.2 percent gain.

Food inflation posted at down 0.9 percent after jumping 1.3 percent in November. Energy costs in December slipped 0.3 percent after a sharp monthly plunge of 4.6 percent in November. Gasoline declined 1.7 percent after falling 10.1 percent in November.

Within the core, upward pressure was seen in passenger cars and tobacco. Partially offsetting were declines in computers and light trucks.

For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate in December posted at 1.3 percent versus 1.4 percent the month before (seasonally adjusted). The core rate was up 2.0 percent, compared to 2.2 percent in November. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for December, the year-ago headline PPI was up 1.3 percent, while the core was up 2.0 percent.

Consensus Outlook
The producer price index in November dropped 0.8 percent after falling 0.2 percent in October. This was largely due to lower energy costs. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, rebounded a modest 0.1 percent, following a decline of 0.2 percent in October. Food inflation jumped 1.3 percent after rising 0.4 percent in October. Energy costs at the producer level dropped a sharp monthly 4.6 percent in November, following a 0.5 percent rise the prior month. Gasoline declined 10.1 percent, following a decrease of 2.2 percent in October. Within the core, higher prices for passenger cars and light trucks led the November gain, increasing 0.5 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a family of indexes that measure the average change over time in the prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller. Effective with the January 2014 PPI data release in February 2014, BLS transitioned from the Stage of Processing (SOP) to the Final Demand-Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) aggregation system. The headline PPI (for Final Demand) measures price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to final demand: personal consumption, capital investment, government purchases, and exports.  Why Investors Care
It is always a good idea to look at more than a few months of data to get a sense of changes in established trends. Monthly changes in the PPI are mainly volatile because of sharp fluctuations in food and energy prices. The core PPI eliminates the sharper fluctuations.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
Yearly changes tend to smooth out more severe monthly fluctuations and give a better idea of the underlying rate of inflation. Even with the smoother trend, note that the core PPI does not fluctuate as much as the total PPI.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/152/203/144/125/156/147/128/149/1310/2911/2112/13
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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