| Chicago Fed National Activity Index |
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Released On 10/25/2012 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2012
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Prior | Actual |
| Level | -0.87 | 0.00 | | 3 Month Moving Average | -0.47 | -0.37 |
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Highlights
The body of the nation's economic indicators improved in September, to a zero reading on the Chicago Fed score vs minus 1.17 in August. Three of four broad categories were positive contributors to the index in the month led by employment. The drag from consumption & housing eased slightly. The three-month moving average improved to minus 0.18 from minus 0.27 but is still in the negative column, for the seventh straight month.
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Market Consensus before announcement
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to minus 0.87 in August from a revised minus 0.12 in July. The three-month average also sank more deeply into contraction, from a revised minus 0.26 in July to minus 0.47 in August which is the lowest level since June last year. The production component, pressured by a drop in both industrial production and capacity utilization, fell to minus 0.58 in August from a slightly positive reading in July. Consumption & housing was at minus 0.23 which is slightly more negative than the prior month. Both the employment component and the sales/orders/inventories component were marginal negatives in the month.
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Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to better gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
Why Investors Care
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