| Philadelphia Fed Survey |
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Released On 6/21/2012 10:00:00 AM For Jun, 2012
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Prior | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| General Business Conditions Index - Level | -5.8 | 0.5 | -3.0 to 4.0 | -16.6 |
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Highlights
The alarm you hear is the Philly Fed's monthly report where contraction is gripping the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector this month. The general business conditions index shows contraction for a second month and, at a minus 16.6 level, much more severe contraction than May's minus 5.8, a reading that in itself was a shock. High mid-teen negative readings sweep the details including new orders, unfilled orders, shipments, deliveries, and the workweek. Employment shows very slight growth but follows slight contraction in the prior month. Price pressures are going into reverse as oil eases and overall demand eases.
Indications on the manufacturing sector have been mixed with hard data weak vs strength in anecdotal data. But this anecdotal report joins the hard data to signal that the manufacturing sector may have a slow summer.
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Market Consensus before announcement
The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey for May dropped to minus 5.8 from plus 8.5 in April. New orders were discouraging as the index fell 3.9 points to minus 1.2, indicating mild contraction for May.
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Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.
Why Investors Care
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The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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