Econoday Economic Report: Chicago PMI October 31, 2012

2012 Economic Calendar

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Chicago PMI

Released On 10/31/2012 9:45:00 AM For Oct, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Business Barometer Index - Level	49.7	51.0	49.5 to 52.0	49.9

Highlights
The Chicago ISM business barometer index edged up 0.2 percentage points in October to 49.9 but marginally remained in contractionary territory. Business activity measures reflected weakness in five of seven indexes, most notably as the rate of expansion in production and employment slowed while new orders stalled near neutral and order backlogs remained in contraction.

The production index slipped to 50.0 in October from 56.5 in September. The new orders index fell below breakeven to 47.0 from 51.0 in September.

The latest reading suggests that the economy is just muddling along. The survey covers both manufacturing and non-manufacturing.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Chicago PMI dropped 3.3 points in September to 49.7 which was the first sub-50 reading of the recovery. The previous recovery low was 52.7 in May. New orders in September fell a very steep 7.4 points to 47.4, also the lowest level of the recovery.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management - Chicago compiles a survey and a composite diffusion index of business conditions in the Chicago area. The survey is now conducted by Market News International since the October of 2011. Manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms both are surveyed. Hence, it is not directly comparable to pure manufacturing surveys. Readings above 50 percent indicate an expanding business sector. Why Investors Care

The ISM-Chicago survey (traditionally and informally called the Chicago PMI) registers manufacturing and non- manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. Investors care about this indicator because the Chicago region somewhat mirrors the nation in its distribution of manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity. Many like to compare the Chicago-PMI with following business day's ISM manufacturing index but they do not always move in tandem since the national ISM is only for manufacturing.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/31 2/29 3/30 4/30 5/31 6/29 7/31 8/31 9/28 10/31 11/30 12/28

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