2012 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 11/2/2012 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change-5.2 %-5.1 %4.9 %3.0 % to 7.0 %4.8 %

Aircraft orders really distorted factory order data over the last two months, with total orders rising 4.8 percent in September and falling a revised 5.1 percent in August. A slightly more positive indication comes from the important category of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft which shows a 0.2 percent gain for new orders following a 0.3 percent gain in August. But the gains do little to reverse July's big 5.6 percent decline.

Data on the shipment side are mixed, up 0.9 percent overall following the prior month's 0.2 percent dip but down 0.2 percent for nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft to extend a run of declines that points squarely at a decline underway for business investment.

Other data show a steady and balanced build for inventories, which indicates that manufacturers have materials on hand which is good news especially given the supply disruptions underway in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. A slight build in unfilled orders is more good news.

But in sum, weaknesses in the business investment readings underscore the uncertainty that businesses are feeling right now. The Dow is edging to opening lows following today's report.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders posted a 5.2 percent decline in August due to a temporary but massive drop in aircraft orders. But excluding transportation equipment, which is where aircraft is classified, orders actually rose in the month, up a second straight 0.7 percent. However, some of that strength was related to higher prices for oil. More recently, new factory orders for durables rebounded a monthly 9.9 percent in September.

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/42/33/54/35/26/47/38/28/3110/411/212/5
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

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