| Factory Orders |
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Released On 10/4/2012 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2012
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Factory Orders - M/M change | 2.8 % | 2.6 % | -6.0 % | -10.0 % to -1.2 % | -5.2 % |
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Highlights
Aircraft are an important piece of the manufacturing sector but aircraft orders, which are clumpy, often make factory data hard to read. A 5.2 percent decline in factory orders for August is a scary result but when excluding transportation equipment, which is where aircraft is classified, orders actually rose in the month, up a second straight 0.7 percent.
A narrower look at the capital goods group, a group that offers signals on business investment, shows a dramatic 24.4 percent monthly plunge in orders, which however that turns into a welcome 1.1 percent gain when excluding aircraft. But other signs on capital goods are not positive including a second straight monthly dip for shipments both including and excluding aircraft.
Factory order data are notoriously volatile month to month, which may be good news for the September report which will have a very easy comparison. And more recent data do show improvement for September based at least on the ISM and Philly Fed, which are two prominent reports that offered early warnings of turbulence for the factory sector.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Factory orders in July rebounded 2.8 percent after a 0.5 percent decline in June. The July gain was led by a 4.1 percent surge in durable goods orders and included a 1.5 percent rise for nondurable goods which got a boost from petroleum and coal. More recently, new factory orders for durables plunged a whopping 13.2 percent (monthly) in August after a revised 3.3 percent boost in July. The August drop was led down by plummeting orders for civilian aircraft.
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Definition
Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.
Why Investors Care
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Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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