2012 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 11/5/2012 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level55.1 54.9 53.0  to 56.0 54.2 

Highlights
The bulk of the nation's economy fared well in October based on the ISM's non-manufacturing index which came in at 54.2, safely above 50 to indicate monthly growth though at a slightly slower rate of monthly growth than September's 55.1. Growth in new orders slowed a bit but the 54.8 reading is healthy and points to activity down the production chain in the months ahead. Business activity, akin to a production index in this report, also slowed but at 55.4 is still solid.

Employment is the standout in this report, rising nearly four points to 54.9 for the strongest rate of monthly growth since March. This is a positive report but it is dated a bit given disruptions underway from Hurricane Sandy. Still, going into the storm, this report suggests the economy was doing fine. There's little initial reaction in the markets.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey advanced to 55.1 in September from 53.7 the prior month. Notably, the new orders index increased to 57.7 from 53.7 in August. This indicates acceleration in monthly orders to a healthy level. Export orders also show a monthly increase, though just barely, while total backlog orders contracted slightly. Another big gain in the report was in business activity which means that non-manufacturers are very busy filling orders.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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