2012 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 10/3/2012 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level53.7 53.5 52.0  to 54.7 55.1 

Highlights
Orders are surging in the non-manufacturing sector where the ISM index for new orders jumped four points to 57.7. This indicates an acceleration in monthly orders to a very strong level. The new orders index was last near this level in March, which was part of a nearly record quarter for this index. Export orders also show a monthly increase, though just barely, while total backlog orders contracted slightly.

Another big gain in the report is in business activity which means that non-manufacturers are very busy filling orders. Unfortunately, though, employment isn't very strong, at 51.1 for a 2.7 point drop to indicate a slowing rate of hiring. The sample reports price pressures for raw materials and a slowing in the supply chain, one that's consistent with the increased activity.

The composite index is 1.4 points higher to 55.1 which is the best reading since the first quarter. The Dow isn't getting much immediate lift but, aside from jobs, this is a very positive report.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey for August rose 5 tenths to 52.6. The new orders index rose 1 full point to 54.3. Business activity, which is an indication on output of goods and services in the sample, really took off, up 5.5 points from a depressed June level to 57.2 in July for the best rate of monthly growth since March.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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