2012 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index
Released On 3/5/2012 10:00:00 AM For Feb, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level56.8 56.0 54.5  to 58.0 57.3 

Highlights
Rising orders headline a very positive non-manufacturing report from the ISM where the headline composite index is up five tenths to a better-than-expected level of 57.3. But the composite may understate underlying strength in the bulk of the nation's economy where order levels are building with new orders up nearly two points to a very strong 61.2 vs January's already very strong 59.4. Strength in new orders is feeding a build in backlog orders which rose 3.5 points to 53.0 which is a strong level for this reading.

Other activity follows orders with business activity (akin to a production index) up more than three points to a very strong 62.6. Another key reading shows moderating strength in employment to a still very strong 55.7. Other readings show slight moderation in export orders, a build in inventories, and a rise in raw material costs.

The order readings in this report are very favorable for the economic outlook though the slight slowing in employment growth will ease optimism for a strong reading in Friday's employment report. The Dow is moving higher following release of the data.

Market Consensus before announcement
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in January jumped to 56.8-a strong 3.6 points above December's upwardly revised 53.0. New orders jumped nearly 5 points to a 59.4 level that indicated strong monthly growth and acceleration in general activity in the months ahead.

Definition
The non-manufacturing ISM surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy—indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/54/45/36/57/58/39/610/311/512/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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