2012 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 10/1/2012 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level49.6 49.7 48.0  to 50.6 51.5 

Highlights
Both the PMI's this morning are signaling modest growth which is good news for the nation's manufacturing sector. The ISM report is bouncing back following three months of contraction going back to June, but not for September with the index at a better-than-expected 51.5. The Dow is moving up in immediate reaction.

Details back the optimism with new orders, at 52.3, showing solid growth. Employment is the big plus in the September report, rising 3.1 points to a 54.7 level that indicates a surprisingly brisk pace of hiring. Negatives include a fourth month of contraction for new export orders, which reflects weak global markets, and a sixth straight contraction in total backlog orders. Manufacturers, waiting for new orders to pick up, have been working down backlogs in recent months which has been helping to keep up production. But production is in the negative column for the second straight month, but this will reverse if new orders keep coming in.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey for August was more negative, slipping further into negative territory at 49.6 in August versus 49.8 in July. A big part of the drop was a decline in the production index to 47.2 from 51.3 in July. Also, the new orders index dipped to 47.1 in August from 48.0 the prior month. New export orders were definitely part of the problem, at 47.0 for what is also the third straight month of contraction.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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