2012 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 7/2/2012 10:00:00 AM For Jun, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level53.5 52.0 51.0  to 53.4 49.7 

Highlights
The status of the Philly Fed has just gone up. The ISM's manufacturing index shows contraction in June for the first time since July 2009. New orders, at 47.8, show contraction for the first time since April 2009 and the degree of the decline is the steepest since October 2001. Export orders, reflecting weakness in Europe and China, are a serious negative, at 47.5 for the first contraction since June 2009 and the lowest reading since April 2009. With a lack of new orders, manufacturers are working down backlogs which are at 44.5.

Inventories are coming down as are prices which show their greatest rate of monthly contraction since, once again, April 2009. Positives are continued growth in production and in employment though strength here won't last long without new orders. The Philly Fed for the last two months has been prominently signaling such a result as today's report. The Dow is falling in immediate reaction.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey slipped to 53.5 in May from 54.8 the prior month. The latest was still well within positive territory, indicating moderate growth. But details were even better. The ISM's new order index was up 1.9 points to 60.1 for the strongest rate of monthly growth since April of last year. This portends an improvement in manufacturing overall. More recently, the Markit flash PMI for manufacturing in June eased to 52.9 from 54.0 in May.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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