2012 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 6/1/2012 10:00:00 AM For May, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level54.8 54.0 51.0  to 54.5 53.5 

In surprising good news, the ISM's new order index is up nearly 2 points to 60.1 for the strongest rate of monthly growth since April last year. New orders are life's blood and will trigger wider activity in the months ahead. For May, production growth slowed but remains healthy while employment growth in the factory sector, as it was in today's employment report, is steady and healthy. Inventories are coming down even as new orders pick up, a combination that points to the need for inventory building which is a solid positive.

Areas of mild concern are backlog orders, which are contracting, and new export orders which are slowing. A positive is monthly contraction in raw material prices which will give manufacturers the flexibility to add to capacity including to their workforces.

The details in this report are stronger than the headline, which slipped 1.3 points to 53.5. But new orders are a highlight of this report with the Dow now moving off opening lows.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey in April rose 1.4 points to 54.8. Importantly, the new orders index was up to 58.2 from 54.5 in March, showing sizably greater monthly growth. Production was strong and, importantly, manufacturers in the sample added significantly to their payrolls.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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