2012 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index
Released On 2/1/2012 10:00:00 AM For Jan, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level53.9 53.1 54.5 53.0  to 56.0 54.1 

Highlights
Moderate and steady growth is the indication from the ISM manufacturing report where readings pretty much match those of December. The January composite index rose to 54.1, safely over 50 to indicate monthly expansion and 1 point over December to indicate a slightly faster rate of expansion (prior revised). A key highlight of the report is the new orders index which rose nearly 3 points to 57.6 to indicate a little bit more than just a moderate rate of monthly expansion. In another positive, backlog orders increased 4.5 points to show a build at 52.5.

Growth for some factors did slow in the month but not very much including production, which is at 55.7, and employment, which is at 54.3 for a 5 tenths decline and what is not a positive indication for Friday's employment report. Price pressures for raw materials picked up slightly in the month to end three months of contraction.

The manufacturing sector is a bulwark of the economy and, despite troubles in Europe and slowing in Asia, continues to expand, underscored by a faster rate of expansion for new export orders which rose 2 points to 55.0. Despite the strength in orders, there's little initial reaction to today's report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey in December improved to 53.9 from 52.7 in November, moving further into positive territory. Index levels above 50 indicate positive growth with higher levels indicating stronger rates of growth. The latest gain in the composite was led by increases in the production and employment indexes. Production jumped to 59.9 from 56.6 in November. Employment rose to 55.1 from 51.8. The boost in employment is likely a vote of confidence by manufacturing management for stronger demand in coming months.

Definition
The ISM manufacturing composite index is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is transformed into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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