2012 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 1/3/2012 10:00:00 AM For Dec, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level52.7 53.2 52.5  to 54.0 53.9 

Acceleration in the manufacturing sector is the latest good news on the economy. New orders in the ISM's manufacturing report for December rose nearly one point to 57.6 to signal acceleration from what was already a solid rate of growth in November. Other readings on orders include a slowing draw for backlog orders and acceleration for new export orders, the latter perhaps a surprise given trouble in Europe and dislocations tied to Thailand. Strength in orders points ahead to strength in general business activity including employment which is already gathering steam, at 55.1 for a nearly 3-1/2 point gain.

Other details include a strong rate for production, which explains the gain in employment, as well as continued easing in input price pressures. The stock market is adding to early gains following these results.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey rose 1.2 points in November to a reading of 52.7. The gain in the composite was led by a 6.5 point jump in the production index to 56.6. Importantly, the new orders index was up a very strong 4.3 points to 56.7, above 50 to indicate monthly growth and pointing to continuing momentum.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/25/16/17/28/19/410/111/112/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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