2012 Economic Calendar
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International Trade
Released On 3/9/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Trade Balance Level$-48.8 B$-50.4 B$-48.4 B$-50.8 B to $-46.5 B$-52.6 B

Highlights
Higher oil prices led to more red ink for the U.S. trade gap for the latest month. The U.S. trade deficit expanded in January to $52.6 billion from $50.4 billion in December (originally $48.8 billion). Analysts called for a shortfall of $48.4 billion. Exports advanced 1.4 percent after rebounding 0.4 percent in December. But imports grew a sharp 2.1 percent in January, following a 1.6 percent increase the prior month.

The worsening in the trade gap was led by the petroleum goods deficit which widened to $29.7 billion from $27.2 billion in December. The nonpetroleum goods gap, however, was little changed at $36.8 billion from $36.7 billion the month before. The services surplus improved to $14.9 billion from $14.6 billion.

Goods exports were led by capital goods excluding autos and autos. Goods imports were led by autos and by industrial supplies.

Excluding petroleum, goods exports jumped 2.3 percent in January after rising 0.4 percent the month before. Excluding petroleum, goods imports were up 1.8 percent after a 2.1 percent gain.

On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the January figures show surpluses, in billions of dollars, in part with Hong Kong $2.1 ($2.5 for December), Australia $1.6 ($1.7), and Singapore $0.8 ($1.3).. Deficits were seen in part, in billions of dollars, with China $26.0 ($23.1), OPEC $10.0 ($9.1), European Union $8.5 ($9.6), Japan $6.2 ($6.5), Canada $4.8 ($3.9), Mexico $4.2 ($4.9), and Germany $4.1 ($4.8).

The widening of the deficit was mostly (but not entirely) expected due to higher oil prices. This is a negative for the consumer's wallet. But the good news within the report is that nonpetroleum goods exports are still healthy-making manufacturers happy and providing support for continued economic growth.

Market Consensus before announcement
The U.S. international trade gap worsened in December due to a jump in imports outpacing a rise in exports. The trade gap expanded to $48.8 billion from $47.1 billion in November. Exports rebounded 0.7 percent after declining 1.0 percent in November. Imports advanced 1.3 percent in December, following a 1.0 percent gain the prior month. The worsening in the trade gap was led by the nonpetroleum goods deficit which widened to $36.5 billion from $34.1 billion the month before. The petroleum gap narrowed to $26.9 billion from $27.6 billion in November. The services surplus was essentially unchanged at $15.5 billion.

Definition
International trade is composed of merchandise (tangible goods) and services. It is available nationally by export, import and trade balance. Merchandise trade is available by export, import and trade balance for six principal end-use commodity categories and for more than one hundred principal Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) system commodity groupings. Data are also available for 36 countries and geographic regions. Detailed information is reported on oil and motor vehicle imports. Services trade is available by export, import and trade balance for seven principal end-use categories.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Exports grow when foreign economies are strong. The weaker the foreign exchange value of the dollar, the less expensive goods and services are to foreigners, and this also helps spurt export activity. Imports grow when U.S. economic growth is robust. Imports are also spurred by a strong foreign exchange value of the dollar.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The international trade balance has posted a deficit almost continuously since the 1980s. Any trade deficit is a drag on U.S. GDP growth, but a smaller deficit adds to growth, while a larger deficit decreases GDP growth.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/132/103/94/125/106/87/118/99/1110/1111/812/11
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


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