Highlights
Personal income and spending beat expectations for March. However, the spending number was partly due to inflation. Still, the spending trend is good. Personal income in March improved 0.4 percent after a 0.3 percent rise the month before (originally up 0.2 percent) . The market median forecast called for a 0.3 percent gain. The important wages & salaries component gained 0.3 percent after advancing 0.4 percent in February.

Consumer spending in March increased 0.3 percent, compared to a 0.9 percent in surge in February (previously up 0.8 percent). Analysts expected a 0.4 percent increase. By components, durables dipped 0.3 percent in March (autos declined after a strong February); nondurables jumped 0.9 percent on higher gasoline prices; and services edged up 0.1 percent.

Chained-weighted spending was still positive, nudging up 0.1 percent and following a robust 0.5 percent jump in February.

On the inflation front, the headline PCE price index rose 0.2 percent, compared to 0.3 percent in February.
The market median forecast was for a 0.2 percent boost in March. The core rate firmed to 0.2 percent in March from 0.1 percent the prior month. Expectations were for a 0.2 percent boost.

Year-on-year, headline prices were up 2.1 percent, compared to 2.3 percent in February. The core was up 2.0 percent versus 1.9 percent the prior month.

Despite still high unemployment, the consumer sector is gaining modest momentum with aggregate income gains and an upward trend in real spending. With recent declines in gasoline prices (not yet showing up in official monthly data), more progress is likely on the consumer sector.

Market Consensus before announcement
Personal income in February advanced 0.2 percent after a 0.2 percent gain the month before. The important wages & salaries component was a little stronger, advancing 0.3 percent, following a 0.4 percent gain in January. Consumer spending in February accelerated to a 0.8 percent increase, compared to 0.4 percent in January (previously up 0.2 percent). Inflation was mixed. The headline PCE price index got hotter, rising to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent in January, reflecting stronger energy costs. The core rate eased to 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent the prior month. Looking ahead, the private wages & salaries component of personal income is likely to be sluggish in March as aggregate earnings for private payrolls rose only 0.1 percent. Personal consumption is likely to be tugged down by the durables component as unit new motor vehicles sales dropped 4.8 percent in March. However, on the plus side for goods consumption, retail sales excluding autos and gasoline were up 0.7 percent for the month. PCE inflation is likely to be a little on the warm side as the headline CPI rose 0.3 percent in March while the core CPI rose 0.2 percent.

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/30 3/1 3/30 4/30 6/1 6/29 7/31 8/30 9/28 10/29 11/30 12/21 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov