| ADP Employment Report |
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Released On 5/2/2012 8:15:00 AM For Apr, 2012
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| ADP employment | 209,000 | 201,000 | 183,000 | 140,000 to 216,000 | 119,000 |
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Highlights
Signaling disappointment for Friday's employment report, ADP estimates that April private payrolls will rise by only 119,000 in what would be significant monthly slowing vs a revised 201,000 in March.
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Market Consensus before announcement
ADP private payroll employment for March posted a gain of 209,000. This compares to BLS estimates of 121,000 for private payrolls and 120,000 for total payrolls.
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Definition
The ADP national employment report is computed from a subset of ADP records that in the last six months of 2008, represented approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 24 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data are collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. ADP also use ADP contracted with Macroeconomic Advisors to compute a monthly report that would ultimately help to predict monthly nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistic's employment situation. The ADP report only covers private (excluding government) payrolls at this time. As a simplification of the process used by Macroeconomic Advisors, estimates are based upon statistical comparison of ADP growth rates to BLS payroll employment growth rates at the industry level. ADP also adds in the BLS initial claims data for the week just prior to the employment report as part of its estimation procedure. (Automatic Data Processing (ADP)/Macroeconomic Advisers)
Why Investors Care
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![[Chart]](showimage.asp?imageid=22454)
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The new ADP employment report is aimed at improving payroll forecasts by providing information in advance of the employment report.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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