Econoday Economic Report: ADP Employment Report February 1, 2012

2012 Economic Calendar

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ADP Employment Report

Released On 2/1/2012 8:15:00 AM For Jan, 2012

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
ADP employment	325,000	292,000	172,000	110,000 to 235,000	170,000

Highlights
At 170,000, ADP's estimate for private payroll growth in Friday's employment report is very near Econoday's consensus for 172,000. This compares with December's revised gain of 292,000 and points to monthly weakness in Friday's report. Initial reaction in the markets is limited.

Market Consensus before announcement
ADP private payroll employment for December was an estimate of 325,000. The BLS private payroll number for the month posted with a gain of 212,000.

Definition
The ADP national employment report is computed from a subset of ADP records that in the last six months of 2008, represented approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients and approximately 24 million U.S. employees working in all private industrial sectors. The data are collected for pay periods that can be interpolated to include the week of the 12th of each month, and processed with statistical methodologies similar to those used by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to compute employment from its monthly survey of establishments. ADP also use ADP contracted with Macroeconomic Advisors to compute a monthly report that would ultimately help to predict monthly nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistic's employment situation. The ADP report only covers private (excluding government) payrolls at this time. As a simplification of the process used by Macroeconomic Advisors, estimates are based upon statistical comparison of ADP growth rates to BLS payroll employment growth rates at the industry level. ADP also adds in the BLS initial claims data for the week just prior to the employment report as part of its estimation procedure. (Automatic Data Processing (ADP)/Macroeconomic Advisers) Why Investors Care

The new ADP employment report is aimed at improving payroll forecasts by providing information in advance of the employment report.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/5 2/1 3/7 4/4 5/2 5/31 7/5 8/1 9/6 10/3 11/1 12/5

Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov