| Durable Goods Orders |
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Released On 7/26/2012 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2012
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| New Orders - M/M change | 1.1 % | 1.6 % | 0.6 % | -1.4 % to 2.1 % | 1.6 % | | New Orders - Yr/Yr Change | 4.6 % | 5.1 % | | | 8.0 % | | Ex-transportation - M/M | 0.4 % | 0.8 % | 0.2 % | -0.7 % to 1.7 % | -1.1 % | | Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr | 3.8 % | 4.1 % | | | 3.1 % |
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Highlights
Manufacturing surveys have been suggesting that this sector has lost steam and even shrunk a bit. And today's durables orders report from the government did not add much clarification except for aircraft. New factory orders for durables jumped 1.6 percent in June after rebounding 1.6 percent in May (prior revised estimate, up 1.3 percent). The latest number came in higher than analysts' forecast for a 0.6 percent boost.
Overall orders were mostly boosted by transportation which spiked 8.0 percent in June, following a 3.7 percent increase the prior month. Both nondefense and defense aircraft orders rose sharply while motor vehicles edged down.
Excluding transportation, durables orders fell 1.1 percent following a 0.8 percent gain in May (prior revised estimate, up 0.7 percent). The decline fell short of the consensus estimate for a 0.2 percent increase.
Prior revised numbers are from the full factory orders report for the prior month.
Outside of transportation, weakness was widespread in June though following a notable gain in May.
Investment numbers have been volatile but on average are a positive. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft declined 1.4 percent but followed a sizeable 2.7 percent surge in May. Shipments for this series rose 1.2 percent in Junes after gaining 1.1 percent in May.
Overall, manufacturing appears to have lost momentum outside of nondefense aircraft and business equipment. Motor vehicles are holding up well also.
On the news, equity futures were up but on comments from ECB president Draghi and on a drop in initial jobless claims.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Durable goods orders rebounded 1.3 percent in May after a 0.3 percent dip the month before. Overall durables got sizeable lift from aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, durables rose 0.7 percent after a 0.7 percent drop in April. The transportation component was notably strong, jumping 2.7 percent after a 0.8 percent rise in April. Outside of transportation, component strength was in machinery and in electrical. On the downside were primary metals, fabricated metals, and computers & electronics. "Other" was little changed.
Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.
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Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.
Why Investors Care
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![[Chart]](showimage.asp?imageid=22915)
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Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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