| Jobless Claims |
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Released On 5/3/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk4/28, 2012
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| New Claims - Level | 388 K | 392 K | 378 K | 365 K to 385 K | 365 K | | 4-week Moving Average - Level | 381.75 K | 382.75 K | | | 383.50 K | | New Claims - Change | -1 K | 3 K | | | -27 K |
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Highlights
Jobless claims fell very convincingly in the April 28 week, down 27,000 to a much lower-than-expected level of 365,000. The Labor Department reports no distortions in the data. The big decline takes claims back toward the 350,000 level that was being tested in March and February. But this is only one week of improvement which is reflected in the four-week average that, despite the big decline, rose slightly in the week to 383,500. This level is still tangibly higher than the 360,000 levels through March.
Continuing claims continue to trend lower, down 53,000 in data for the April 21 week to 3.276 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 2.6 percent.
The big headline drop in initial claims offers reassurance that economic growth is secure and it will no doubt be a big plus for today's stock market. Tomorrow the Labor Department will post the monthly jobs report.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims in the April 21 week declined a modest 1,000 to 388,000, which includes a 3,000 upward revision to the prior week, at 389,000. The four-week average continued its upward pivot, at 381,750 for a third straight gain of 6,250. In contrast to initial claims, continuing claims have been trending lower though data for the two latest weeks do show small gains. But the four-week average, at 3.312 million, extended its long downtrend with a 10,000 decline in the latest week.
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Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.
Why Investors Care
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Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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