Highlights
The economy appears to be hitting the pause button as the Conference Board's index of leading indicators dipped 0.3 percent in April following a 0.7 percent jump in March (originally up 0.4 percent.) The weakest factor is initial jobless claims which sliced off 0.33 percentage points from the index's growth. Vendor performance subtracted 0.21 percentage points. Also negative are building permits and the factory workweek (new orders for consumer goods and new orders for nondefense capital goods are also negative but these readings are imputed). Of these negatives, jobless claims may become a positive for May based on this morning's 8:30 ET claims report.

Adding lift as always is the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury note and fed funds (adding 0.35 percentage points) with positive contributions also from stock prices, money supply, and consumer expectations. The coincident index edged up 0.1 percent in April vs a 0.2 percent rise the prior month.

One month is only one month and the Conference Board isn't ready to call for a contraction in the economy, saying growth will continue though at a "choppy" rate.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators in March rose 0.4 percent, slowing from February's rate of 1.0 percent. The strongest component was the spread between the 10-year T-note and fed funds rate which added 0.34 percentage points. The Fed is still providing plenty of liquidity in financial markets. The second strongest component was building permits which added 0.28 percentage points. The biggest negative was consumer expectations, subtracting 0.41 percentage points, and likely reflecting higher gasoline prices, still high unemployment, and geopolitical concerns. The coincident index advanced 0.2 percent in March, following an incremental gain of 0.1 percent in February.

2011 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/20 2/17 3/17 4/21 5/19 6/17 7/21 8/18 9/22 10/20 11/18 12/22 Release For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov