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Highlights
A surge in building permits, which is part of yesterday's housing starts report, is the single biggest contributor to the very solid 1.0 percent gain for the index of leading economic indicators. Permits pushed the yield spread, which is usually the index's number one plus, to second place. Unemployment claims are another positive as are stock prices and, surprisingly, consumer expectations which have however been showing weakness.
The one percent headline gain follows a 1.1 percent gain in November. These point to strong rates of overall economic growth down the road but the Conference Board, which compiles the report, is downplaying the strength saying the results point to "uneven" expansion ahead. The coincident index, which measures current activity, is rising but only slowly, at plus 0.2 percent following gains of 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent in the prior months.
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Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators for November index jumped 1.1 percent, following healthy gains of 0.4 percent in October and 0.6 percent in September. In addition to the sharp rise, what also stands out for November is that the boost was based on widespread positive contributions by components with all but one contributing to the month's gain.
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