2011 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 5/19/2011 10:00:00 AM For May, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level18.5 23.0 15.0  to 28.0 3.9 

Like the Empire State report, the Philly Fed report points to slowing conditions in the manufacturing sector. The general business conditions index slowed to 3.9, still over zero to indicate month-to-month growth but well under April's 18.5 to indicate a much slower rate of growth. New orders and shipments both show slowing while unfilled orders and inventories turned negative. Price pressures also eased which is consistent with slowing demand. Another negative in the report is an easing in the six-month outlook where optimism is fading. April didn't turn out to be a great month for the manufacturing sector and early indications on May are pointing to trouble.

Consensus Outlook
The general business conditions index of the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook Survey eased in April to 18.5 from 43.4 in March. The latest number is still above breakeven of zero but reflects a slower growth rate. The details were still positive but disappointing for the most part, softening from strong numbers in March. The new orders index declined to 18.8 from 40.3 while shipments eased much less to 29.1 from 34.9 in March.

The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/202/173/174/215/196/167/218/189/1510/2011/1712/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

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