| Consumer Confidence |
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Released On 7/26/2011 10:00:00 AM For Jul, 2011
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Consumer Confidence - Level | 58.5 | 59.2 | 57.0 | 50.0 to 60.0 | 59.5 |
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Highlights
The consumer confidence report is mixed showing improvement in the outlook but deterioration in current conditions. The Conference Board's index rose nearly two points to 59.5 from a revised 57.6 in June. These levels are very depressed and far from an 80 reading that would be consistent with strong economic conditions. A key detail in this report is the assessment of the current jobs market where an increasing percentage, at 44.1 percent vs June's 43.2 percent, say jobs are hard to get. This points to another month of trouble for the monthly employment report. Also on the negative side is that more consumers describe current business conditions as bad with fewer describing conditions as good.
That's the bad news. The good news is that there's less pessimism on the six-month outlook with more seeing more jobs ahead and more saying business conditions will improve. Also, more see their income on the rise. The latter is tied to perhaps the best news in the report which is another downtick in inflation expectations, to 5.7 percent vs 6.0 percent in the June report and 6.5 percent in the May report.
The moderation in gas prices is a significant economic factor for the consumer but further moderation isn't yet in the cards given stubbornly high oil prices which continue to test $100. Next data on consumer spirits will be Friday's consumer sentiment report which took a big dip at mid-month.
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Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in June fell significantly for a second straight month, down more than three points to 58.5. The assessment of the present situation dipped 1.7 points to 37.6 while the expectations measure declined 4.3 points to 72.4.
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Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month.
Why Investors Care
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Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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