2011 Economic Calendar
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Factory Orders  
Released On 12/5/2011 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Factory Orders - M/M change0.3 %-0.3 %-1.1 % to 0.7 %-0.4 %

Factory orders fell 0.4 percent in October with both orders for durables goods, down 0.5 percent, and orders for non-durable goods, down 0.3 percent, showing weakness. The decline on the durables side is skewed by a monthly downswing in aircraft orders while the decline on the non-durables side reflects price changes for energy products.

The build in unfilled orders slowed to 0.2 percent vs 0.6 and 0.9 percent gains in the prior two months, a slowing together with the decline in new orders that will hold down future shipments. But shipments were still strong in October, up 0.6 percent vs a 0.3 percent rise in September. A possible alarm in today's report is a big build in inventories of 0.9 percent. High inventories, together with soft orders, will limit demand for inventory replenishment.

Today's report is for October and last week's big jump for new orders in the ISM manufacturing report for November offers a strong anecdotal indication that new momentum, despite troubles in Europe and slowing in China, may be building in the factory sector. Next data on the factory sector will be goods exports in Friday's international trade report.

Consensus Outlook
Factory orders in September rose 0.3 percent. New orders for nondurables, up a strong 1.0 percent, got a lift from petroleum and coal, products that are sensitive to price changes. The durables component was revised to minus 0.6 percent from an initial reading from the advance report of minus 0.8 percent. More recently, in the advance report, new factory orders for durables in October fell 0.7 percent, following a revised decline of 1.5 percent the prior month.

Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.  Why Investors Care
Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/42/33/43/315/36/27/58/38/3110/411/312/5
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

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