| Factory Orders |
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Released On 6/2/2011 10:00:00 AM For Apr, 2011
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Prior | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Factory Orders - M/M change | 3.0 % | -0.9 % | -2.5 % to -0.5 % | -1.2 % |
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Highlights
Factory orders fell 1.2 percent in April as a price-fueled 0.6 percent rise for new orders of non-durable goods failed to offset a steep 3.6 percent retreat on the durable side where the monthly declines are wide and deep. Factory shipments fell 0.2 percent to end a recovery-long string of gains. And suddenly the build underway in inventories doesn't look so great, hinting at unwanted inventory that's building, not due to anticipation of future demand, but due to lack of current demand. Inventories rose 1.3 percent in the month, right in line with the builds of the prior two months.
A plus in the report is a continued rise in backlog orders which will give manufacturers a little breathing space to wait out what hopefully will be a very brief soft spot in their recovery. Yesterday's ISM report showed an extreme correction from high rates of monthly growth to a marginal rate of growth. Yet a marginal rate of growth for this report in May would in fact be a very welcome improvement.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Factory orders in March jumped 3.0 percent after a 0.7 percent gain the prior month. Shipments, which ultimately of course track new orders, rose 2.7 percent in March following a 0.6 percent gain in February. More recently, durables orders fell back in April, declining 3.6 percent, following a revised 4.4 percent jump in March. Excluding transportation, new durables orders slipped 1.5 percent, following a 2.5 percent rise in March.
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Definition
Factory orders represent the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods. This report gives more complete information than the advance durable goods report which is released one or two weeks earlier in the month.
Why Investors Care
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Even though monthly shipment data fluctuate less than new orders, both series show underlying trends more clearly by looking at year-over-year changes. In 2005 for example,new orders rose more rapidly than shipments due to large gains in aircraft orders. Aircraft orders have a long lead to shipment.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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