2011 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 10/5/2011 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level53.3 52.9 51.3  to 54.2 53.0 

Rates of monthly growth in orders are accelerating though employment is now contracting in what is a mixed report on the non-manufacturing sector for September. New orders rose a very solid 3.7 points to 56.5, over 50 to indicate monthly growth and well above August to indicate an accelerating rate of monthly growth. Backlog orders are now over 50, up five points to 52.5 to end three months of contraction. These are solid readings that point to rising overall strength for the sector in the months ahead.

Business activity, that is production, rose 1.4 points to a 57.1 level that shows the strongest rate of monthly growth in six months. Yet despite the rise in output, non-manufacturers are not hiring with the employment index falling 2.9 points to a sub-50 reading of 48.7 that indicates contraction in the sample's workforce. This is the first contraction in employment since August last year.

The report's overall composite index is 53.0, which is right at the Econoday consensus for 52.9. Though the employment reading in this report offers a negative signal for Friday's monthly employment data, order readings are positive leading indications. The Dow is moving to positive ground following this report.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in August edged 0.6 points higher to 53.3. The reading was above 50 and indicates monthly growth in activity, albeit modest growth. New orders showed a slight but welcome monthly acceleration to 52.8 for a 1.1 point gain from July.

The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/52/33/34/55/46/37/68/39/610/511/312/5
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

powered by  [Econoday]