2011 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 12/1/2011 10:00:00 AM For Nov, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level50.8 51.5 50.5  to 52.5 52.7 

ISM new orders are turning higher in what is very good news for the manufacturing sector. The new orders index for November is up a very strong 4.3 points to 56.7, above 50 to indicate monthly growth and well above October. This index had been stuck at slightly sub-50 levels in prior months which now are forgotten. Helped by new orders, the ISM composite index is up 1.2 points to a 52.7 level that compares with the Econoday consensus for 51.5. November's level is the best since June.

Details show acceleration for export orders and for production. Delivery times are little changed while input prices slipped for a second month. Backlog orders are going down which is a negative that will hopefully be offset by the rise in new orders. Another disappointment is employment where hiring slowed, here too a factor that will hopefully reverse. Inventory readings are stable.

The stock market is getting a lift from today's report which hints at building strength and renewed leadership in manufacturing. On Monday, the ISM will post data on the non-manufacturing economy where growth has been steady and moderate.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey in October eased to 50.8 from 51.6 in September. However, weakness was largely in the inventory component which dropped from 52.0 in September to below breakeven at 46.7, indicating contraction for the latest month. The new orders index which, after three straight of months of marginal contraction, moved to the plus column with a 2.8 point gain to 52.4. Backlogs dropped less rapidly as this index was up 6.0 points to 47.5.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/15/26/17/18/19/110/311/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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