2011 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 11/1/2011 10:00:00 AM For Oct, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level51.6 52.0 50.9  to 53.0 50.8 

Manufacturing may be about to pick up new steam based on the ISM's new orders index which, after three straight of months of marginal contraction, moved to the plus column with a nearly three point gain to 52.4, a reading that's over 50 to show month-to-month expansion. With new orders up, manufacturers worked down their backlogs to an easing degree with the index up six points to 47.5. Employment is little changed at 53.5 to indicate moderate hiring in the sample. Production is steady as are supplier deliveries. New export orders show no change.

A big plus in the report is sharp contraction in prices paid, down 15 points to 41.0 which is the lowest reading in 2-1/2 years. Lower costs reflect slowing demand but they will give manufacturers more leeway to invest in their businesses and workforces. The headline composite index of 50.8 is below the Econoday consensus of 52.0 but the new orders gain is an offsetting plus. Stocks are little changed in early reaction to today's report which may however limit losses through the session.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey in September rose 1.0 point to 51.6, largely on production and employment. The production index gained 2.6 points to 51.2. And factories were hiring as the employment index rose further into positive territory, moving to 53.8 from 51.8 in August. But the new orders index was under 50 for a third month in a row, though just barely at 49.6.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/15/26/17/18/19/110/311/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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