2011 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 10/3/2011 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level50.6 50.5 49.0  to 52.0 51.6 

Employment picked up and production picked up, but orders in the manufacturing sector are flat at the very best, according to September data from the Institute For Supply Management whose composite index came in at 51.6 vs Econoday expectations for 50.5. The employment component rose two full points to 53.8 to indicate a tangible increase in hiring. This is in line with a tangible increase in production which rose more than 2-1/2 points to 51.2.

Now the bad news in the report. New orders are under 50 for a third month in a row, though just barely at 49.6 in a reading that hints at fractional contraction in final demand. Manufacturers, waiting for new orders to pick up, have been chewing through back orders in recent months and continued to do so in September as backlog orders fell 4-1/2 points to a 41.5 level that indicates sizable contraction. One plus on the order side is a pick up in new export orders which rose two points to 53.5.

Stocks are moving off opening lows but this report, given the weakness in orders, isn't likely to trigger much of a rally through the session. The ISM will post non-manufacturing data on Wednesday.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey edged three tenths lower to a plus-50 reading of 50.6 that still indicates monthly expansion in general activity though at a very slow rate. The composite was held back by a slowing in employment and a slight monthly contraction in production. The new orders index was up four tenths to 49.2.

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/15/26/17/18/19/110/311/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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