2011 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index
Released On 2/1/2011 10:00:00 AM For Jan, 2011
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level57.0 57.5 56.5  to 59.5 60.8 

Highlights
Indicating a true surge underway in the nation's manufacturing sector, the ISM composite index jumped nearly 2-1/2 points to a rare plus 60 reading at 60.8 for a seven-year high (prior month revised to 58.5). New orders are the leading component, up nearly six points to 67.8 in a gain that points to a run of 60 readings ahead for the composite index. The other four components of the composite also show month-to-month acceleration including employment which is also in rare territory at 61.7 for a nearly two-point gain and the first plus-60 reading in seven years.

The strength of activity in part reflects rising prices with input prices which jumped nine points to a rare plus-80 reading at 81.5. The gain reflects rising prices for energy, metals and chemicals. Other readings include a big surge in backlog orders and in new export orders.

Manufacturing, supported by rising global demand for our goods, is clearly the economy's leading driver. Stocks are rising and money is moving out of the safety of Treasuries following the results.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey rose four tenths in December to 57.0, well over 50 to indicate significant monthly growth for the month. This was the healthiest reading since May 2010. We should get another favorable reading for January as the new orders index jumped 4.3 points to 60.9 in December-the highest level also since May 2010.

Definition
The ISM manufacturing composite index is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is transformed into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/32/13/14/15/26/17/18/19/110/311/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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