| Housing Starts |
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Released On 12/20/2011 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2011
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Starts - Level - SAAR | 0.628 M | 0.708 M | 0.636 M | 0.600 M to 0.650 M | 0.685 M | | Permits - Level - SAAR | 0.653 M | 0.644 M | 0.645 M | 0.610 M to 0.679 M | 0.681 M |
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Highlights
New housing construction is showing signs of life in November-although the pulse is still weak. Housing starts in November rebounded 9.3 percent after slipping 2.9 percent in October. The November annualized pace of 0.685 million came in higher than market expectations for 0.636 million units and is up 24.3 percent on a year-ago basis. The gain in November was led by a 25.3 percent jump in the multifamily component, following a 15.2 percent decrease in October. The single-family component improved 2.3 percent after a 3.6 percent rise the month before.
By region, the boost in starts was led by a 53.8 percent jump in the Northeast. Other regions showing increases were the West, up 22.6 percent, and the South, up 4.1 percent. The Midwest declined 18.2 percent.
Home builders are growing in optimism although still to a modest degree from low levels as housing permits advanced 5.7 percent after jumping 9.3 percent in October. The November rate of 0.681 million units annualized topped the consensus forecast for 0.645 million. Permits in November are up 20.7 percent on a year-ago basis.
The November gain in permits was led by a 13.9 percent jump in multifamily permits after a 22.7 percent surge in October. Single-family permits rose 1.6 percent, following a 3.6 percent increase the prior month.
Today's housing starts report is consistent with yesterday's report of a rise in the National Association of Home Builders' housing market index. There are signs that the level of activity in single-family home sales is picking up, but the real action clearly has shifted to the multifamily sector as high unemployment and still tight credit are constraining home sales.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Housing starts in October unexpectedly held up instead of retreating after a strong gain the month before. Housing starts in October nudged back only 0.3 percent, after rebounding a sharp 7.7 percent the prior month. The October annualized pace of 0.628 million units was up 16.5 percent on a year-ago basis. The dip in October was led by an 8.3 percent decline in the multifamily component, following a 35.0 percent spike in September. The single-family component rebounded 3.9 percent after a 2.6 percent decrease the month before. Housing permits jumped 10.9 percent after declining 5.8 percent in September. But the optimism was mainly for multifamily construction.
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Definition
A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building.
Why Investors Care
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Monthly figures are often volatile; housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. It takes several months for total housing starts to establish a trend. Consequently, we have depicted total starts relative to a five month moving average.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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