| Housing Starts |
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Released On 7/19/2011 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2011
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Starts - Level - SAAR | 0.560 M | 0.615 M | 0.575 M | 0.550 M to 0.600 M | 0.629 M | | Permits - Level - SAAR | 0.612 M | | | | 0.624 M |
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Highlights
Housing is continuing to move up from near rock bottom. Housing starts jumped 14.6 percent in June, following no change in May (originally up 3.5 percent). June's annualized pace of 0.629 million units came in higher than the consensus projection for 0.575 million units and is up 16.7 percent on a year-ago basis. The boost in June was led by a 30.4 percent surge in the multifamily component, following a 2.2 percent dip in May. The single-family component rose 9.4 percent after gaining 0.7 percent the prior month.
By region, the boost in starts was led by a monthly 35.1 percent increase in the Northeast. Other regions also improved with the Midwest up 25.3 percent; the South, up 10.6 percent; and the West, up 5.4 percent.
Housing permits advanced 2.5 percent, following an 8.2 percent surge in May. Overall permits stood at an annualized rate of 0.624 million units and are actually up 6.7 percent on a year-ago basis.
Whether the recent slow uptrend in starts continues will depend on whether supply on the market comes down. The next news on supply of homes for sales comes with the existing home sales report that will be posted tomorrow morning.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Housing starts in May rebounded 3.5 percent, following an 8.8 percent drop in April. May's annualized pace of 0.560 million units was down 3.4 percent on a year-ago basis. The gain in May was led by a 3.7 percent rebound in the single-family component, following a 3.3 percent decline in April. The volatile multifamily component made a partial comeback, rising 2.9 percent after falling 21.7 percent the month before. Housing permits pointed to a little more optimism on the part of homebuilders, jumping 8.7 percent in May, following a 1.9 percent decrease in April. But the fundamentals are unchanged. There is still enormous supply on the market and labor markets are weak, keeping potential homebuyers on the sidelines.
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Definition
A housing start is registered at the start of construction of a new building intended primarily as a residential building. The start of construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building.
Why Investors Care
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![[Chart]](showimage.asp?imageid=21109)
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Monthly figures are often volatile; housing starts fluctuate more than many indicators. It takes several months for total housing starts to establish a trend. Consequently, we have depicted total starts relative to a five month moving average.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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