2011 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 11/4/2011 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2011
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change103,000 158,000 90,000 64,000  to 152,000 80,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level9.1 %9.1 %9.0 % to 9.2 %9.0 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change137,000 191,000 120,000 100,000  to 168,000 104,000 
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.3 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.2 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.3 hrs34.3 hrs34.3 hrs to 34.3 hrs34.3 hrs
Nonfarm Payroll - level131.334 millions

The headline number for October payrolls was a little disappointing but upward revisions were more than offsetting. Payroll jobs in October posted a gain of 80,000 after rising a revised 158,000 in September (originally 103,000) and increased a revised 104,000 in August (previously 57,000). Market expectations were for a 90,000 boost for the latest month. Revisions for August and September were up net 102,000.

As in recent months, greater strength was seen in private nonfarm payrolls which advanced 104,000, following a 191,000 rise in September and a 72,000 increase in August. The October increase was lower than the market median forecast for a 120,000 increase.

In the private sector, goods-producing jobs were tugged down by construction but with manufacturing and mining partially offsetting. Goods-producing jobs declined 10,000 after a 29,000 boost in September. Construction jobs fell 20,000 in October after rebounding 27,000 the month before. Manufacturing employment gained 5,000 after a 3,000 dip in September. Mining advanced 6,000, following a 4,000 gain the prior month.

Private service-providing jobs rose 114,000 in October, following a 162,000 boost the prior month. The October increase was led by professional & business services (up 32,000) and trade & transportation (up 35,000). The temp help subcomponent of professional & business services rose 15,000 after a 21,000 gain.

The public sector contracted as government employment fell 24,000, following a 33,000 decline in September. Most of the October decrease was in the non-educational component of state government.

Earnings were moderately healthy as average hourly earnings in October rose 0.2 percent, following an upwardly revised 0.3 percent the month before. Analysts had forecast a 0.2 percent increase. The average workweek for all workers in October was unchanged at 34.3 hours. Analysts called for 34.3 hours.

From the household survey, the unemployment rate edged down to 9.0 percent from 9.1 percent in September. The consensus expected 9.1 percent. The unemployment rate declined largely on a sizeable 277,000 boost in household employment which has posted significant increases for three months in a row.

The October employment report is about as expected net. The best news was the upward revisions to payroll employment and the continued gains in household employment. These suggest that there might be a little more momentum than seen in the headline payroll number for October. The upward revisions might also help explain moderate strength in retail sales in recent months.

On the news, equity futures rose somewhat but slipped later.

Consensus Outlook
Nonfarm payroll employment in September advanced 103,000, following a 57,000 rise in August and a 127,000 increase in July. Private nonfarm payrolls were somewhat stronger than the total, gaining 137,000 in September, following a 42,000 increase in August and a 173,000 boost in July. A return of striking telecommunications workers added about 45,000 to the payroll total and private tally. Still, prior months' revisions were substantial at a net gain of 99,000 and more than offset the returning strikers effect. Wages rebounded 0.2 percent in September after dipping 0.2 percent the prior month. The average workweek for all workers in September ticked up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in August. From the household survey, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1 percent.

The most closely watched of all economic indicators, the employment situation is a set of monthly labor market indicators based on two separate reports: the establishment survey which tracks 650,000 worksites and offers the nonfarm payroll and average hourly earnings headlines and the household survey which interviews 60,000 households and generates the unemployment rate.

Nonfarm payrolls track the number of part-time and full-time employees in both business and government. Average hourly earnings track employee pay while the average workweek, also part of the establishment survey, tracks the number of hours worked. The report's private payroll measure excludes government workers.

The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known data from the household survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2011 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/72/43/44/15/66/37/88/59/210/711/412/2
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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