| Employment Situation |
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Released On 10/7/2011 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2011
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Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change | 0 | 57,000 | 65,000 | 30,000 to 115,000 | 103,000 | | Unemployment Rate - Level | 9.1 % | | 9.2 % | 9.0 % to 9.5 % | 9.1 % | | Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change | -0.1 % | -0.2 % | 0.2 % | 0.0 % to 0.5 % | 0.2 % | | Av Workweek - All Employees | 34.2 hrs | | 34.2 hrs | 34.2 hrs to 34.3 hrs | 34.3 hrs | | Private Payrolls - M/M change | 17,000 | 42,000 | 95,000 | 54,000 to 135,000 | 137,000 |
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Highlights
Job growth improved more than expected in September although the gain was held back by contraction in the government sector. Payroll jobs advanced 103,000 in September, following a revised 57,000 rise in August (originally flat) and revised 127,000 increase in July (previously 85,000). Analysts forecast for a 65,000 increase for September. Revisions for July and August were up net 99,000. Private nonfarm payrolls were somewhat stronger than the total, gaining 137,000 in September, following a 42,000 increase in August and 173,000 boost in July. The September number topped the market expectation for a 95,000 increase. A return of striking telecommunications workers added about 45,000 to the payroll total and private tally.
In the private sector, goods-producing jobs rebounded modestly while service-providing jobs posted a notable gain. Goods-producing jobs rebounded 18,000 after a 9,000 decrease in August. Manufacturing jobs fell 13,000 after a 4,000 dip the month before. Motor vehicle industry jobs were flat in September. Construction rebounded a sizeable 26,000, following a 7,000 decline in August. Mining grew 5,000, following a 3,000 gain the prior month.
Private service-providing jobs jumped 119,000 in September, following a 51,000 gain the prior month. The August gain was led by professional & business services (up 48,000) and health care (up 44,000). Employment in information was up by 34,000 over the month due to the return of about 45,000 telecommunications workers to payrolls after an August strike.
The public sector shrank as government employment fell 34,000, following a 15,000 rise in August. August would have declined other that due to a return of 22,000 Minnesota government workers from a partial government shutdown.
Wages rebounded 0.2 percent in September after dipping 0.2 percent the prior month. Analysts had projected a 0.2 percent increase. The average workweek for all workers in September ticked up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in August. The median forecast was for 34.3 hours.
From the household survey, the unemployment rate held steady at 9.1 percent. The consensus expected a rise to 9.2 percent.
Today's report indicates that the labor market is not quite as sluggish as earlier believed. Importantly, the services sector may be gaining mild momentum. Looking ahead, today's numbers point to a healthy wages & salaries component in the upcoming personal income report. However, industrial production for September is likely to be soft outside of autos.
On the news, equity futures rose notably.
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Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment was unchanged in August, following a revised 85,000 increase in July, and revised 20,000 in June. As in recent months, private sector employment was a little less weak since government jobs pulled down the total. Private nonfarm payrolls edged up 17,000 in August, following a 156,000 gain in July and a 75,000 increase in June. Earnings growth fell back from the auto-sector induced jump in July. Average hourly earnings slipped 0.1 percent after jumping 0.5 percent in July. The average workweek for all workers in August edged down to 34.2 hours from 34.3 in July. From the household survey, the unemployment rate posted at 9.1 percent, equaling the prior.
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Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.
Why Investors Care
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During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected.
This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
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