2010 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 10/5/2010 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2010
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level51.5 52.0 50.0  to 55.0 53.2 

Highlights
The non-manufacturing sector showed month-to-month strength in September, an important indication for second-half economic growth. The ISM's non-manufacturing composite rose more than 1-1/2 points to 53.2, right in line with the year's trend which is 53.6. New orders had been slowing but picked up nicely, up 2-1/2 points to 54.9. Backlog orders, however, did contract slightly, below 50 at 48.0 for the weakest reading since February. Still, the rise in new orders hints at rising backlogs in the months ahead.

Business activity did slow, down about 1-1/2 points to 52.8 for its slowest reading since January. Business activity is akin to a production index. Employment rose two points to 50.2 to show no month-to-month change in what is an uncertain indication for Friday's employment report. In other readings, inventories fell and export orders were strong though both categories are less important on the non-manufacturing side than for manufacturers.

A significant slowing in delivery times is a definitive sign of strength in this report, at 55.0 for the highest reading in more than two years. The non-manufacturing sector shows plenty of activity, news that is sending stocks higher.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey for August fell 3 points to 51.5-just a little above the breakeven level of 50. Looking ahead, they are mixed indications. This report's new orders index also slowed, easing more than 4 points to 52.4, suggesting modest growth ahead for the non-manufacturing sector. More recently, the Chicago PMI rose significantly for September. The Chicago index includes responses from both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.

The bottom line is that the non-manufacturing sector is showing very modest growth but is staying out of negative territory.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2010 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/34/55/56/37/68/49/310/511/312/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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