2010 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 7/6/2010 10:00:00 AM For Jun, 2010
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level55.4 55.0 53.5  to 56.0 53.8 

Peak growth may have already come and gone, a worry of the global markets and indicated by the ISM's June report on non-manufacturing. The headline composite index slipped back 1.6 points to 53.8 for its lowest reading since February. Nearly all details indicate a slower rate of growth in June than in May. New orders fell nearly three points to 54.4 for its lowest reading of the year and joining the ISM's manufacturing index for new orders which, in data released last week, is also at its lowest of the year.

Business activity, at 58.1, is at its lowest level since February. Employment edged back to 49.7 ending its one-month visit over breakeven 50. Backlogs slowed slightly, export orders contracted, imports contracted, inventory gains slowed, and even prices slowed.

Today's report is not good news for the stock market which may continue to discount economic slowing for the months ahead. Today's report will also increase talk that new rounds of government stimulus may be in order.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey in May continued well into positive territory, coming in at a very solid 55.4 for the third month in a row and indicating a moderate rate of growth. Employment finally crossed above the breakeven point of 50 for the first time this recovery, but just barely at 50.4 for a 9 tenths gain. The 50.4 indicates, based on this report's methodology, a net gain in hiring. We could see another gain in the composite in June as the May new orders index posted at a healthy 57.1. This is down from 58.2 in April and the recent high of 62.3 in March but is still quite positive, indicating net growth. More recently, the Chicago PMI remained strong in June but showed signs of deceleration, coming in at 59.1, compared to 59.7 in May. The Chicago PMI is somewhat related to the ISM non-manufacturing index since it covers both non-manufacturing and manufacturing.

The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2010 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/34/55/56/37/68/49/310/511/312/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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