2010 Economic Calendar
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ISM Non-Mfg Index  
Released On 6/3/2010 10:00:00 AM For May, 2010
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Composite Index - Level55.4 55.9 54.2  to 56.0 55.4 

Highlights
The ISM's non-manufacturing composite is unchanged for a third month in May at a very solid 55.4, indicating steady month-to-month acceleration. Employment finally moves above 50 for the first time this cycle, but just barely at 50.4 for a 9 tenths gain. The 50.4 indicates, based on this report's methodology, a net gain in hiring.

New orders remain very solid at 57.1 with backlogs, at 56.0, now jumping in two of the last three months. Rising backlogs point to more hiring ahead. Inventories in the sample are rising and the sample reports a steady rate of delivery delays. Price acceleration eased back slightly. The markets aren't showing much reaction to the report which is very positive pointing ahead to steady economic growth and an increase in hiring.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM non-manufacturing survey held steady at 55.4 in April. By components, the two biggest moves were in supplier deliveries and in new orders. Vendor performance slowed (meaning increased demand and bottlenecks), gaining 4.0 points to 53.5. Meanwhile, new orders fell 4.1 points 58.2-still above breakeven. But we may get some moderation in the overall index for May as in addition to the slowing in new orders growth, a more recent reading for the Chicago PMI moderated to 59.7 from 63.8 in April. Nonetheless, the level is likely to remain well into positive territory.

Definition
The Institute For Supply Management surveys more than 375 firms from numerous sectors across the United States for its non-manufacturing index. This index covers services, construction, mining, agriculture, forestry, and fishing and hunting. The non-manufacturing composite index has four equally weighted components: business activity (closely related to a production index), new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries (also known as vendor performance). The first three components are seasonally adjusted but the supplier deliveries index does not have statistically significant seasonality and is not adjusted. For the composite index, a reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. The supplier deliveries component index requires extra explanation. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. However, slower deliveries are a plus for the economy -- indicating demand is up and vendors are not able to fill orders as quickly.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM non-manufacturing survey does not compile a composite index like its manufacturing cousin. The business activity index, which is actually akin to the production index in the manufacturing survey, is widely followed as the key figure from this survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2010 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/34/55/56/37/68/49/310/511/312/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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