2010 Economic Calendar
POWERED BY  econoday logo
Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar   |   

ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 10/1/2010 10:00:00 AM For Sep, 2010
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level56.3 54.5 53.0  to 55.5 54.4 

Highlights
New orders are decelerating, and perhaps abruptly, while inventories climb and hiring slows. The ISM's new orders index, in prior months having already showed signs of slowing, fell two full points to 51.1 to indicate only mild month-to-month growth. Inventories, which had already been going up, really spiked, up more than four points to 55.6. This will raise concern that a significant part of the inventory build is more and more unwanted. Employment, which had been very strong, fell nearly four points to 56.5.

Backlogs are another bad sign, falling five points and showing month-to-month contraction at 46.5. The headline composite of 54.4 is still solid but orders are now a central concern for the manufacturing outlook. This report may prove to be a negative for today's stock market.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey came in at a stronger-than-expected 56.3 for a sizable eight tenths gain from July. The reading was well over 50 to signal month-to-month growth and also accelerating growth in the comparison with July. But September may ease a bit as August's new orders index dipped four tenths to 53.1 for its lowest reading since the manufacturing recovery began early last year.

Definition
The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2010 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/42/13/14/15/36/17/18/29/110/111/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


powered by  [Econoday]