2010 Economic Calendar
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ISM Mfg Index  
Released On 7/1/2010 10:00:00 AM For Jun, 2010
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
ISM Mfg Index - Level59.7 59.0 57.6  to 59.7 56.2 

The acceleration in manufacturing cooled but only slightly in June, according to the Institute For Supply Management's composite index which slowed to 56.2 from May's very strong 59.7. The slowdown was led by a more than 7 point decline in new orders to a 58.5 reading that nevertheless indicates a strong month-to-month gain, only a smaller gain than in May. Orders continue to move into backlogs but also at a slower rate. Production slowed but remains very strong at 61.4 while hiring also slowed but also remains strong at 57.8. Delays for deliveries eased with the index down nearly 4 points to 57.3, also consistent with slowing activity.

Manufacturers may be having trouble building inventories as the index is little changed at 45.8. But improvement in the customer inventory index suggests that inventories are not as bare as they were in May. A big 20.5 point drop in prices paid indicates easing month-to-month pressure for inputs, the result of flat energy prices.

A month-to-month base effect is at work in this sample, that is comparisons become more difficult as levels across components rise. Similar readings can be expected in the months ahead as the manufacturing recovery matures.

Consensus Outlook
The composite index from the ISM manufacturing survey in May came in at 59.7-down slightly from 60.4 in April but still well above breakeven of 50. Based on the new orders index posting a strong 65.7 reading, the June composite should be healthy. However, more recent regional surveys have been mixed with the Philly Fed index for June slipping to 8.0 from 21.4 in May while the New York Fed manufacturing index improved to 19.57 from 19.11 in May (breakeven of zero for both regional surveys).

The manufacturing composite index from the Institute For Supply Management is a diffusion index calculated from five of the eleven sub-components of a monthly survey of purchasing managers at roughly 300 manufacturing firms nationwide. The survey queries purchasing managers about the general direction of production, new orders, order backlogs, their own inventories, customer inventories, employment, supplier deliveries, exports, imports, and prices. The five components of the composite index are new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories (their own, not customer inventories). The five components are equally weighted. The questions are qualitative rather than quantitative; that is, they ask about the general direction rather than the specific level of activity. Each question is adjusted into a diffusion index which is calculated by adding the percentage of positive responses to one-half of the unchanged responses.  Why Investors Care
The ISM manufacturing index (formerly known as the NAPM Survey) is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2010 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/42/13/14/15/36/17/18/29/110/111/112/1
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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