2010 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation
Released On 11/5/2010 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2010
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change-95,000 -41,000 60,000 -2,000  to 97,000 151,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level9.6 %9.6 %9.6 % to 9.7 %9.6 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.0 %0.1 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.2 %0.2 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.2 hrs34.2 hrs34.2 hrs to 34.3 hrs34.3 hrs
Average Workweek - level34.3 
Private Payrolls - M/M change64,000 107,000 159,000 

Highlights
Payroll jobs finally returned to positive territory as the impact of layoffs of temporary Census workers has dwindled and the private sector is strengthening. Payroll employment in October rebounded 151,000, following a revised 41,000 decline in September and a 1,000 decrease in August. The October gain came in higher than analysts' projection for a 60,000 increase. The August and September revisions were net up 110,000.

The October jobs report saw the last notable drop in temporary Census workers. But the government sector was not as negative as feared. Government employment fell 8,000 after decreasing 148,000 in September. Private nonfarm employment posted another gain, advancing 159,000 in October, following a revised boost of 107,000 in September. The consensus called for an 85,000 boost for private payrolls.

In the private sector, service-providing jobs advanced 154,000 after an 111,000 increase in September. Within services for October, temp help gained 35,000; health care added 24,000 jobs; and retail trade jumped 28,000. Goods-producing industries edged up 5,000 after a 4,000 dip in September. In the latest month, manufacturing was little changed, slipping 7,000; construction rose 5,000; and mining increased 8,000.

Average hourly earnings gained 0.2 percent in October after rising 0.1 percent in September. The October number matched the market forecast. The average workweek for all workers edged up to 34.3 hours from 34.2 hours in October, marginally topping expectations for 34.2 hours.

On a year-ago basis, overall payroll job growth rose to up 0.6 percent in October from up 0.3 percent the month before.

Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent, equaling analysts' median forecast.

Today's report shows the labor sector healing more than anticipated. This is good news for the economy, though there is still a long way to go to return to pre-recession unemployment. On the release, equity futures rose modestly.

Market Consensus before announcement
Nonfarm payroll employment in September declined 95,000, following a revised 57,000 dip in August and a 66,000 decrease in July. But weakness was mostly in the government sector. Government payrolls declined 159,000 after decreasing 150,000 in August. A drop in federal government employment was due to the loss of 77,000 temporary Census 2010 jobs. As of September, about 6,000 temporary decennial census workers remained on the federal government payroll, down from a peak of 564,000 in May. But on the positive side, private nonfarm employment continued to rise, advancing 64,000 in September, following a revised increase of 93,000 the prior month. Average hourly earnings were unchanged in September after rising 0.3 percent in August. The average workweek for all workers was steady at 34.2 hours in September. Turning to the household survey, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.6 percent. Looking ahead, recent declines in initial jobless claims have analysts mildly optimistic for improvement in the unemployment rate and payroll gains. Also, employment indexes in a number of manufacturing surveys have shown improvement.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

 

2010 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/82/53/54/25/76/47/28/69/310/811/512/3
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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