| Durable Goods Orders |
|
Released On 11/24/2010 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2010
|
|
Prior | Prior Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual |
| New Orders - M/M change | 3.3 % | -3.7 % | -0.1 % | -2.7 % to 3.0 % | -3.3 % | | New Orders - Yr/Yr Change | 12.2 % | 14.3 % | | | 10.5 % | | Ex-transportation - M/M | -0.8 % | 1.3 % | | | -2.7 % | | Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr | 9.5 % | 12.0 % | | | 10.0 % |
|
|
|
Highlights
While the consumer sector looks good today from personal income and jobless claims, manufacturing has taken a step back. Durables orders in October fell 3.3 percent, following a 5.0 percent spike the month before. The October figure came in notably below the median market forecast for a 0.1 percent decline. Weakness was broad based but led by transportation. Excluding transportation, durables declined 2.7 percent after rising 1.3 percent in September.
By major industries, transportation fell 5.2 percent in October after surging 16.5 percent the month before. The drop was mainly in defense aircraft but nondefense aircraft and also motor vehicles orders eased. Other industries generally declined but mostly after a moderate gain in September.
Orders for equipment investment are showing notable volatility. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft in October declined 4.5 percent after rising 1.9 percent the previous month. Shipments for this series slipped 1.5 percent, following a 1.0 percent gain in September.
Today's durables report is a disappointment but should be viewed in the context of being one of the most volatile monthly series for a major indicator produced by the government. Also, a weaker dollar points to likely improvement ahead for durables orders and manufacturing.
|
|
Market Consensus before announcement
Durable goods orders in September rebounded a revised 3.5 percent, following a 0.8 percent decrease in August. But a huge part of the gain came from a surge in aircraft orders in the transportation component. Excluding transportation, new durables orders fell back 0.4 percent, following a 2.1 percent increase in August. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft in September edged down 0.2 percent after jumping 5.1 percent in August. More recently, manufacturing surveys have been mixed. For October, the new orders index for ISM manufacturing and Empire State were moderately positive while the equivalent for the Philly Fed manufacturing survey turned negative.
|
Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.
Why Investors Care
|
| |
![[Chart]](showimage.asp?imageid=20031)
|
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
| Legal Notices | ©Copyright 1998-2013 Econoday, Inc.
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](images/logo.gif)
|
