Highlights
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators sank 0.4 percent in February vs. a downward revised 0.1 percent gain in January (0.4 percent first reported). Money supply, which has given the index a boost in recent months and is certain to give a further boost in future months, was not a factor in February, a month when the spread between the 10-year note and fed funds rate was the biggest positive factor, a spread that has since shrunk dramatically following yesterday's move by the Fed to buy long-term Treasuries. The biggest negatives in February were jobless claims, which continue to erode, and stock prices, which may now be recovering. But consumer expectations aren't recovering and they too, given continuing declines in employment, are likely to continue to weigh down the index in future months.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators posted a second consecutive gain in January - but the improvement has been largely due to just one or two components spiking. The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.4 percent in January reflecting a huge jump in money supply as the Fed and Treasury have been injecting massive amounts of funds into the banking system to provide relief to credit markets. Without money supply, the leading index would have slipped 1 tenth in the latest month. Also, the spread between the 10-year Treasury note and fed funds rate widened, adding to the leading index. But instead of the wider spread being due to a drop in the fed funds rate, it was because of a rise in the Treasury note! In real life, this is a negative. We will likely see additional positive contributions for February from the money supply and interest rate spread components for the same reasons - but this time they are likely to not be large enough to offset the negatives.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/26 2/19 3/19 4/20 5/21 6/18 7/20 8/20 9/21 10/22 11/19 12/17 Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov