Highlights
Purchasers in the Chicago area report a surprising dip in business activity in September, news that raises questions whether tomorrow's ISM manufacturing report will dip back below 50. The Chicago business barometer fell nearly 4 points to 46.1 showing a more than 6 point fall in new orders to 46.3 and a nearly 6 point fall in production to 47.2. Deliveries moved more quickly confirming the weakness while backlogs contracted more steeply. The best news in the report is that job losses are severe but no worse while the pace of inventory destocking slowed. Prices paid rose only fractionally from August.

This report, clouded because it includes both manufacturers and non-manufacturers in its sample, does not match manufacturing signals in last week's Philly Fed and Empire State reports which both showed solid strength for September. Note that the ISM's non-manufacturing index, unlike on the manufacturing side, has not been able to move over the break-even level of 50 yet, a watershed that today's report does not point to. Stocks and commodities are slipping while the dollar is firming in immediate safe-haven trade following the Chicago data.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Chicago PMI hit the dead-even 50.0 mark in August, indicating no change in business activity from July and a bottoming for the recession in the region. Chicago's report showed a huge nearly 10-point jump in production to 52.9 in a reading that indicates output actually rose in August. Looking ahead, the new orders index, which point to future production, increased strongly in August, to 52.5 for a 4-1/2 point gain.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/30 2/27 3/31 4/30 5/29 6/30 7/31 8/31 9/30 10/30 11/30 12/30 Release For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec