Highlights
Improvement in factory orders slowed in June, to plus 0.4 percent vs. a 1.1 percent gain in May (revised from plus 1.2 percent). But even the plus 0.4 percent gain masks overall weakness as it reflects that month's jump in energy prices reflected in the nondurables component which rose 2.7 percent vs. a 2.2 percent decline for durable goods. Note that energy prices fell back in July pointing to month-to-month trouble for non-durables. Backlogs continued to fall in June, down 0.9 percent as did inventories, down 0.8 percent to extend a run of declines as manufacturers scramble to draw down their stocks. Shipments did improve, up 1.4 percent vs. a 0.8 percent decline in the prior month. The ISM manufacturing report released Monday points to important improvement in July and holds out the promise that the factory sector is about to enter a period of stable, consistent recovery as soon as this month or perhaps September.

Market Consensus before announcement
Factory orders in May jumped 1.2 percent. Strength was in durables but nondurable goods orders were boosted by somewhat higher oil-related prices, rose 0.7 percent. Notably, May was a strong month for aircraft but other components generally were solid. But the latest advance report on durables orders for June reversed direction with a sharp 2.5 percent drop. Most of the weakness was in civilian aircraft orders as excluding transportation, durables still rose 1.1 percent in June. So it is almost guaranteed that the headline factory orders number will be quite negative although higher oil prices will likely boost nondurables. Markets will likely focus on any revisions to durables excluding transportation.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/6 2/5 3/5 4/2 5/1 6/3 7/2 8/5 9/2 10/2 11/3 12/4 Release For: Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct