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Empire State Mfg Survey  
Released On 4/15/2009 8:30:00 AM For April, 2009
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-38.2 -34.0 -37.4  to -25.0 -14.7 

Highlights
The Empire State manufacturing report shows huge improvement underway in April, though this report has been showing much weaker conditions in prior months than perhaps any other regional business report. The report's general business conditions index rose nearly 25 points to a still contractionary -14.7. New orders showed big improvement from March's -44.8 to -3.9 in April, almost indicating no change in the month-to-month level. Shipments also showed little change from March, at -1.8 vs. -26.7. Manufacturers in the New York region are fighting more fiercely against inventory overhang with the inventory index at -36.0 for a 9 point drop. But price and job readings showed little improvement with both input and output prices continuing to erode at a significant pace as are employee levels and the workweek.

A big positive in the report is the six-month outlook where optimism is surging with general business conditions at 33.1 vs. March's 3.1 and February's -6.6. This report indicates that the pace of contraction has steadied in the New York region, offering optimism that the very worst of the recession may be passing. Financial markets showed little reaction to this report or the CPI report which was also released at 8:30 ET. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing report will be released on Thursday.

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Empire State manufacturing index fell 3-1/2 points in March to a very low and contractionary minus 38.2. New orders were even weaker at minus 44.8, down nearly 15 points. A positive in the report was improvement in the 6-month outlook where readings generally edged into positive ground. But that optimism is for further down the road-the deeply depressed and negative new orders number suggests another decline in the overall index for April.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2009 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/152/173/164/155/156/157/158/179/1510/1511/1612/15
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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