Highlights
Housing starts in February made a significant comeback after January's very low number. Starts rebounded in February, rising 22.2 percent, following a 14.5 percent drop in January. The February pace of 0.583 million units annualized was down 47.3 percent year-on-year and came in above the market projection for 0.450 million units. The improvement in starts was led by the multifamily component which made an 82.3 percent monthly surge while the single-family component edged up 1.1 percent.

By region, the rebound in starts was led by a monthly 88.6 percent jump in the Northeast, followed by gains of 58.5 percent in the Midwest and 30.2 percent in the South. Starts were down 24.6 percent in the West.

Permits were not as robust but still rebounded, rising 3.0 percent in February, after a decline of 2.9 percent the prior month. The February permit pace of 0.547 million units annualized was down 44.2 percent year-on-year.

While gains in starts are certainly more encouraging than declines, today's numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Seasonal factors are large during winter months and it does not take much to jack up the adjusted numbers. And this likely was the case-especially with the volatile multifamily component taking the lead. January was not as weak as many believed and February is not as strong as suggested by the headline.

Market Consensus Before Announcement
Housing starts continued to freefall in January with a 16.8 percent decline, following a 14.5 percent plummet in December. The January pace of 0.466 million units annualized was down 56.2 percent year-on-year. The drop in starts was led by the multifamily component which fell a hefty 27.9 percent while the single-family component fell 12.2 percent. Permits also showed no signed of stabilizing, posting a 4.8 percent decrease in January, after a December fall of 11.1 percent. The January permit pace of 0.521 million units annualized was down 50.5 percent year-on-year. However, permits were not as weak as starts. When starts diverge significantly from permits, it is usually weather related since you actually have to go outside to make a start happen. So, while the starts level is likely to remain very low, we may see a weather-related bump up in starts for February. But don't expect too much of a rebound. Months' supply of new single-family homes stood at a record high of 13.3 months for January and will be keeping new construction weak.

2009 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/22 2/18 3/17 4/16 5/19 6/16 7/17 8/18 9/17 10/20 11/18 12/16 Released For: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov